Friday, January 04, 2008

After Iowa

So the shouting in Iowa is over.

Whether or not the Caucus is significant depends on who you ask, and which party you're speaking about. Tammy Bruce provided the last 8 Iowa Caucus results for historical perspective (eventual nominee is in bold):

Democrats

  • January 19, 2004 - John Kerry (38%), John Edwards (32%), Howard Dean (18%), Richard Gephardt (11%) and Dennis Kucinich (1%)
  • January 24, 2000 - Al Gore (63%), Bill Bradley (37%)
  • February 12, 1996 - Bill Clinton (unopposed)
  • February 10, 1992 - Tom Harkin (76%), "Uncommitted" (12%), Paul Tsongas (4%), Bill Clinton (3%), Bob Kerrey (2%) and Jerry Brown (2%)
  • February 8, 1988 - Richard Gephardt (31%), Paul Simon (27%), Michael Dukakis (22%) and Bruce Babbitt (6%)
  • February 20, 1984 - Walter Mondale (49%), Gary Hart (17%), George
    McGovern (10%), Alan Cranston (7%), John Glenn (4%), Reubin Askew (3%) and Jesse Jackson (2%)
  • January 21, 1980 - Jimmy Carter (59%), Ted Kennedy (31%)
  • January 19, 1976 - "Uncommitted" (37%), Jimmy Carter (28%) Birch Bayh (13%), Fred R. Harris (10%), Morris Udall (6%), Sargent Shriver (3%) and Henry M. Jackson (1%)
  • January 24, 1972 - "Uncommitted" (36%) and Edmund Muskie (36%), George McGovern (23%), Hubert Humphrey (2%), Eugene McCarthy (1%), Shirley Chisholm (1%) and Henry M. Jackson (1%)[9]
Republicans
  • 2004- George W. Bush (unopposed)
  • 2000- George W. Bush (41%), Steve Forbes (30%), Alan Keyes (14%), Gary Bauer (9%), John McCain (5%) and Orrin Hatch (1%)
  • 1996- Bob Dole (26%), Pat Buchanan (23%), Lamar Alexander (18%), Steve Forbes (10%), Phil Gramm (9%), Alan Keyes (7%), Richard Lugar (4%) and Morry Taylor (1%)
  • 1992- George H. W. Bush (unopposed)
  • 1988- Bob Dole (37%), Pat Robertson (25%), George H. W. Bush (19%),
    Jack Kemp (11%) and Pete DuPont (7%)
  • 1984- Ronald Reagan (unopposed)
  • 1980- George H. W. Bush (32%), Ronald Reagan (30%), Howard Baker (15%), John Connally (9%), Phil Crane (7%), John B. Anderson (4%) and Bob Dole (2%)
  • 1976- Gerald Ford, Ronald Reagan

Sen. Clinton can take heart that her husband came in 4th place at his first turn of the Iowa wheel.

The race is only beginning, unless you're either Sen. Biden or Dodd. While I have numerous political reasons why I am glad neither of these gentlemen are any longer in the running, it is interesting to note the 2 candidates with anywhere near the experience to be president (especially in foreign policy) are the first to have dropped out. That Sen. Obamma has practically zero experience and was named top-dog is certainly curious. Sen. Clinton pales in experience to Sen. Edwards, but she has more than Sen. Obamma (and while she has flip-flopped on the War on Terror, she was for it, at least when she thought it suited her to do so).

Iowa GOP caucuses named Gov Huckabee as their candidate. This will propel him into New Hampshire next week. I found it odd that rumors had Sen. Thompson perhaps dropping out and throwing support to Sen McCain; odd first because the rumors came out before the Caucus and odder, still, that Sen. McCain's and Thompson's platforms are not very much alike! I've later read where the two senators have been long-time friends, so that at least justifies the rumor (which Sen. Thompson flatly denies).

Anyone who thinks last night settled the nominations for either party are delusional. This is going to take several more races to sew up. And it wouldn't surprise me if the top-dogs today are also-rans in a few weeks.

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