Here we are, coming around the final turn, soon to be approaching the home stretch in this year's election cycle.
I know people who can spout sports statistics off the top of their head. These are the people who marvel at the number of times a baseball umpire brushes clean home plate. For me, the closest thing I have that relates to those people is politics. I wasn't a PoliSci major, but perhaps I should have been. Regardless, I enjoy reading polls (legitimate ones, mind you, unlike Newsweek's latest offering -- more later) and following trends and debating issues.
I know people who are as fanatical about politics as are the sports people I alluded to above. I'm not quite that devoted to politics; I can't tell you who is running in local races outside my district any more than I can tell you the ERA of any given pitcher. But for me, this season is like a SuperBowl to football fans.
For months now we've been peppered with news poll after news poll, predicting that majority party will be turned out in this election cycle. These reports are hardly credible as a news story. No one predicted a Republican majority in the House of Representatives in 1994, yet it happened. And that election ended a 40 year grasp on the House held by the Democrats.
Most of these polls aren't worth the paper they're printed on; take the recent Newsweek poll, which predicts victory for the Democrats. Dig beneath the surface, and you'll find the Editors point to comparisons to the 2004 Election exit polls; those were the same polls that called for the victory of Sen. Kerry over President Bush, and clearly that was not the case. Some have said the polling sample used by Newsweek was biased towards Democrats, a charge I can't verify but one that would make sense, in light of their perceived bias.
We get so precious news of the robust economy we're all enjoying. The Dow Jones broke 10,000 a few years ago, and every newspaper carried the lead, and every TV news anchor went to live remotes to lower Manhattan. The Dow breaks 12,000 last month and hardly a whisper can be heard. These numbers, as any investor will tell you, are artificial benchmarks; but the fact that they are reached and exceeded are indicative of the economy's strength.
So if at one time you ever used the slogan 'It's the economy, stupid', you'd be a hypocrite not to say it again today.
Why would it not be surprising if the Republicans lose either the House, the Senate or both? Because it is an off-year election, in the President's second term. The greatest turnover (by party) traditionally occurs in these scenarios. Unless there is an overwhelming blowout by Democrats (think of the landslides Ronald Reagan enjoyed in both of his elections), then the Democrats can't claim overwhelming victory. For if they can't win in this environment, with non-stop slamming of the President and GOP on the Nightly News and late-night comedians, where can they win?
Why would it not be surprising if Republicans hold both houses? This country has voted decidedly right-wing for about 12 years now. In Congressional and Gubernatorial races, the country has leaned right for years. Let's look at what would happen should that trend change now:
- No protection to the across-the-board tax cuts
- No efforts to provide for our own oil reserves on our soil
- Amnesty granted for all who cross our borders, with few (if any) questions asked.
Granted, I am hardly alone in my criticism of the GOP-led Congress. Their penchant of spending like a drunken sailor has always been among my criticism. But the House prevented the Senate (and the White House) from passing am amnesty bill; this is a critical point that cannot be ignored.
In less than 2 weeks, we'll be voting (well, to be honest: I mailed my absentee ballot Monday, so I already voted). This election is crucial for the economy, for the safety of our borders, and for the well being of everyone in this nation. If the Democrats had any plan to improve on any of those topics, why haven't they provided any data or any issue they will improve upon, other than voting out Congressmen who voted along with President Bush?
Sphere: Related Content
♦
DiggIt! ♦
Add to del.icio.us ♦
Add to Technorati Faves ♦
Facebook