Saturday, October 30, 2004

Presidential Predictions


I've read scanned a lot of blog posts from around the web this afternoon, and saw a lot of predictions made by a lot of people. The one that caught my eye was Gale Winds' at Winds of Change. Her answers are posted here, and after reading mine I encourage you all to read hers, then return here and post your answers (or link backs).

1. Who will receive the majority of the popular vote - Kerry or Bush?
2. Who will receive the majority of electoral votes - Kerry or Bush?
3. Will we know who the next President is on Nov. 3rd?
4. Are you confident that the elected candidate will actually become our next President? If not, what is the most likely scenario for one of the candidates to become our next President through illegitimate means?
5. Where and how do you plan to watch the election returns?
6. What do you think will happen if there is a repeat of 2000 and a perception that the election has been stolen? What will you personally do if this is the case?
7. If you are a Kerry supporter and Bush stays in the WH - what will you do for the next 4 years?
Clearly, what I see in Gale's questions are a pattern of bias, and she is certainly entitled to her positions.

Here are my predictions:

1) Hard to predict, but I will say Senator Kerry will earn this distinction. Knowing the rampant fraud involved in voter registration, and the lackadaisical maintenance of these voter rolls (i.e.: I moved from NYC 12 years ago, and I am still listed as a valid voter), I predict that many more 'votes' will be cast for Sen. Kerry. Cities like Cincinnati and Philadelphia have at least as many registered Democrats as they have population, per the census, so there's got to be fraud going on here. Oddly enough, most of these over-votes will be registered in counties that are overwhelming Democrat, so I don't believe this will affect the more important vote count, that of the Electoral College. Of course, if military absentee ballots are properly counted, this prediction may be for naught, as that will move the count back towards President Bush.

2) President Bush will win the EC. I say this with confidence, as the whole idea of the EC is to balance the cities against the rural areas, and that will prevent demagogues from running over the rest of the country.

3) Probably not. As the DNC has long promised a gang of lawyers to stand ready at polling places around the nation (and, yes, the RNC is planning to counter them as well!) we won;t know right away, short of a landslide one way or other. Frankly, while at one time I could envision such a repeat of Ronald Regan's elections, few pundits suggest it would be possible today.

4) This question presumes there was an illegitimate president elected in 2000. Since there is no evidence of this, no evidence of disenfranchised Florida voters (so say the NY Times, others), and since the SCOTUS did not decide the election, but in fact told the State of Florida to simply follow its own laws, this question is moot.

5) Last time, I was on business travel. Actually, I was staying in a hotel near my office, but not, in fact, 'on travel.' In those days I stayed in town one night a week to curb commuting hours (2 hour commute). I stayed late at work, went bowling with friends, and returned to my hotel room. Little did I to stay up til dawn watching the returns! This time, as I start a new job on Monday, I'll be home watching FNC and turning in long before the final tallies are in. On the upside, I plan to be up at 4AM, so I will of course check in then.

People say FNC is biased, and MSNBC claims 'America will be watching the returns here'. A pity that FNC beat out CNN & MSNBC (COMBINED) in ratings throughout the debates. Could it be that a) FNC is fair and/or b) the others don't provide coverage worthy of watching?


6) As I said in #4, the election wasn't stolen. However, if there is a perception, it will go to the courts, of course. In the end I will accept what is decided, one way or other. I found the 1992 campus's campaign (so much for spell checker!) of then Governor Bill Clinton to be as distasteful as any, but I called him President nonetheless (admittedly, I began to refer to him as 'the impeached President Clinton', which was only fair). I don't understand this idea that violence in the face of a political defeat; it is inappropriate, under any circumstance. However, if President Bush should lose re-election, I will resolve myself to pay more taxes, have the nation return to the days of President Carter (as far as world view goes), and fight tooth and nail against any nationalized medical program.

7) Moot question again. As I said in #6, I pretty much identified what I plan to do. Many people threaten to move out of the country. If even one of the Hollywood star who predicted they would do the same in 2000 did, I would give credence to one ordinary person's prediction. If you don't like something that happens in our government, you petition to change it. But just because you do petition there's no guarantee it will happen. Gotta decide which nation is the freest, the best to live. If you can point to another nation, by all means speak up!



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